„Владимир Путин е президент на държава с глобален геополитически код и се движи от руската национална стратегия. Украйна е само елемент от геополитическия пъзел, който руският държавен глава подрежда. Съвременните западни анализатори не разбират Русия“, казва Боян Чуков в интервю за Труд.
– Господин Чуков, неизбежен ли беше конфликтът в Украйна?
– За световната експертна общност и за всички сериозни политици с опит в областта на глобалната сигурност събитията в Украйна бяха неизбежни. Военната мощ на Русия нарасна и започна да съперничи на САЩ. В същото време Пентагонът започна да усвоява украинската територия във военен план без страната да е член на НАТО.
Президентът Зеленски допусна фатална грешка преди време като заплаши, че неговата страна ще се откаже от своя безядрен статут на фона на осемгодишното изтребване на рускоговорящото население в Донбас от украинската армия. Украйна като наследник на една високотехнологична част на бившия съветски ВПК има експертни и промишлени ресурси и може с външна помощ бързо да се сдобие с атомно оръжие.
Още през 1991 г. редица известни западни политици и дипломати предупреждаваха, че движението на НАТО на изток към руските граници ще доведе до необратими последици. Предупреждение направи през 2008 г. и днешния шеф на ЦРУ Уилям Бърнс с докладна записка до Кондолиза Райс, в която посочва, че „Украйна е най-червената от всички червени линии за Кремъл“.
Геополитическият експерт Джордж Кенън предупреди Бил Клинтън през 1997 г.: „Разширяването на НАТО би било най-съдбовната грешка на американската политика в цялата епоха след Студената война“. Би трябвало да си дадем сметка, че Третата световна война е в своята начална фаза. Тя няма да изглежда като Първата или Втората.
Пропагандните медийни машини хем усилват шума от въоръжените схватки в Украйна, хем приспиват сетивата ни за разумно мислене. Масите са като онази жаба в топла вода, която се нагрява бавно, но ще бъде „сварена“ в най-неочаквания момент. Засега конфликтът между Русия и Запада е с ниска интензивност, но за съжаление е възможно тя да стане и висока.
– Каква е целта на Русия?
– Владимир Путин от години повтаря все едно и също. Кремъл няма да се съгласи да бъде нарушено основното правило за общата глобална сигурност, което фигурира в международните документи на ОССЕ, подписани от всички страни, членки на организацията, през 1999 г. в Истанбул и 2010 г. в Астана.
Сигурността на едни държави не може да става за сметка на други. Приближаването на военната инфраструктура на НАТО плътно до руските граници е недопустимо за руските военни стратези.
Основната цел на Русия е да гарантира своята национална сигурност, която е застрашена от придвижването на военната инфраструктура на Североатлантическия алианс в Източна Европа и военното усвояване на Украйна.
Политиката на „отворени врати“ на НАТО влиза в разрез със стратегията за сигурност на Русия. В началото на 90-те се считаше, че Североатлантическият алианс, който е инструмент от Студената война, няма да се разширява на изток.
Но НАТО не само се разширяваше на изток и погълна цяла Източна Европа, но започна да нараства и към постсъветското пространство. Кому е нужно това? С какво Украйна щеше да допринесе за сигурността на Западния вектор?! С нищо. Тъкмо обратното, беше използвана, за да извади Русия от равновесие.
– Как тълкувате заплахата на Путин: „Който се опитва да ни пречи и още повече да създава заплахи за нашата страна, за нашия народ, трябва да знае, че отговорът на Русия ще бъде незабавен и ще доведе до такива последици, които никога не сте изпитвали в историята си“?
– Това е директно предупреждение, че Русия няма да се поколебае да употреби атомно оръжие ако продължава да бъде предизвиквана или някой се опита да се намеси в действията на Шойгу в Украйна.
Русия ще действа безкомпромисно. Не е случайно, че непосредствено преди тази военна операция беше проведено широкомащабно учение на руската атомна триада. Руските атомни подводници започнаха да плават близо до източното и западно крайбрежие на САЩ.
Руската армия освободи още един град до Харков с помощта на местната полиция ВИДЕО
Владимир Путин подсказа с конкретни технически мероприятия, че Русия може да нанесе ракетни удари, включително и ядрени, по центровете за вземане на решения. Ако западните държави решат да се намесват в Украйна. Путин е поставил на карта всичко, заради Украйна.
– Бихте ли прогнозирали какво ще е развитието на конфликта?
– Считам, че след „денацификацията“ и разоръжаването на Украйна в Киев ще има ново правителство, позитивно настроено към Руската федерация. Всички въоръжени формации на украинските десни радикали ще бъдат разформирани. Изключвам военна намеса на НАТО в Украйна.
Вашингтон многократно заяви, че не се планира американска военна намеса. Естествено, това касае и НАТО, организация, която е функция на Пентагона. Необходимо е да се прави разлика между информационната война и реалните стъпки, които са готови да направят двете страни.
Конфликтът може и да не приключи с битката в Украйна. Зависи от много фактори. Не изключвам вероятността руснаците да пробият т. нар. „сувалкски коридор“ от Беларус до Калининградска област.
Защото при това обтягане на отношенията, те практически могат да изгубят Калининградска област. Подобна операция би означавала практически конфликт с Литва.
– Докъде ще спре Русия, само до Източна Украйна ли или и по-навътре?
– Това е доста труден въпрос. Според мен не става въпрос само за Източна Украйна. Русия ще реши и редица свои неотложни геостратегически проблеми, имащи пряко отношение към Украйна. Ще бъде организиран сухопътен коридор до Приднестровието по украинска територия, след като Киев стане приятелски настроен към Москва.
След Крим руската армия ще може да ползва за свои цели и украинския остров Змийски, който е на 12 морски мили от румънския бряг и е близо до американската база в района на Констанца. Военните съоръжения, които Великобритания се опитва да изгради по украинското крайбрежие на Черно море, няма да се ползват от британските ВМС.
Русия настоява НАТО да се свие до старите си позиции преди 1997 г. Русия не иска да вижда в Европа ракетни системи на НАТО дислоцирани по-близо от 1800 км до своите граници. Промените, за които настоява Москва, към този момент са невъзможни.
Никоя от тези страни не би се съгласила да напусне Алианса, особено след последните събития в Украйна. Но тези искания са знак, че Русия е загубила всякакво търпение към това, че САЩ с една особено голяма лекота не се съобразяват с интересите u.
– Как ще определят кои украинци трябва да бъдат съдени?
– Преди броени дни по руската телевизия говорител на руския Следствен комитет прочете списък от 85 човека, които бяха посочени като военни престъпници. Оказа се, че руснаците през последните години са събирали доказателства за извършени от тях престъпления.
Посочени са украински военни, които са давали заповед да бъдат обстрелвани с оръдия и минохвъргачки села и градове в Донбас, в резултат на което са убити хиляди деца, жени и старци.
В Следствения комитет е организиран един цял етаж за работа по украинските военни, които са обвинени във военни престъпления. Вече задочно е осъден един бивш украински министър на отбраната.
Става напечено: Британски наемници прииждат в Украйна, за да воюват срещу Русия
На руските следователи са известни всички лични данни на украински военни, които са посочени като военни престъпници. Възможно е да има публичен процес, който да бъде предаван по руските телевизионни канали. Някакъв вариант на съвременен Нюрнбергски процес.
– Защо Путин нарича Украйна нацистка държава?
– Очевидно е защо Путин нарича Украйна нацистка държава. Днешната власт в Украйна е в ръцете на хора, които виждат украински национален герой в лицето на Степан Бандера. Той е сътрудничал в периода 1944-1945 г. на Абвера и е подготвял диверсионни групи. Работел е в полза на нацистите.
На 9 април 2010 г. Степан Бандера е удостоен посмъртно за Герой на Украйна.
Герой на днешна Украйна е и Роман Шухевич, причастен към масови убийства на евреи и поляци. Той е служил във въоръжени подразделения на Третия райх и е бил зам.-командир на специалното подразделение „Нахтигел“. Поляците и руснаците ненавиждат Бандера и Шухевич.
Как да наричаме държава, в която национални герои са Бандера и Шухевич, а техните последователи маршируват по улиците на Киев с военна униформа, на която са поставени знаци на СС германските войски и развяват знамена с нацистки пречупени кръстове?
Това украинско правителство 8 години изтребва с оръдия и минохвъргачки собственото си население в Донбас.
– Има ли Путин личен мотив да си връща на Украйна?
– В действията на Владимир Путин няма лични мотиви. Той търси националния интерес на Русия. Путин е президент на държава с глобален геополитически код и се движи от руската национална стратегия. Украйна е само елемент от геополитическия пъзел, който руският държавен глава подрежда.
Съвременните западни анализатори не разбират Русия.
Ако я разбираха, щяха да знаят, че Русия гледа на Украйна като нещо свое, за което ще се бие. Винаги е било така, това не е от днес. Обясненията на западняците за поведението и намеренията на Путин са трогателно наивни, те са изцяло в рамките на познатата ни либерална когнитивна матрица.
Те не разбират манталитета на руснаците. Още по-малко могат да разшифроват плановете и конкретните тактически ходове на руския президент. Той е офицер от руското разузнаване. И може да бъде разбран само от негови колеги като Бърнс, шефа на ЦРУ, който посети преди няколко месеца Москва.
Руският президент се срещна и разговаря с него, но не прие Виктория Нюланд. Путин е абсолютно предсказуем и в същото време непредсказуем. Звучи парадоксално, но е така. Путин винаги казва какво ще направи, но никой не знае кога, къде и по какъв начин.
– Как ще се отрази конфликтът върху България?
– Към днешна дата няма опасност от военна гледна точка за нашата страна. Нещата могат рязко да се променят, ако на наша територия приемем тежки въоръжения, които имат за цел обекти на територията на Русия.
Ако дислоцираме атомно оръжие в нашите военни бази, рискуваме при един широкомащабен конфликт между САЩ и Руската федерация да изчезнем като народ. България ще бъде тежко поразена от икономическата криза, която се надига като цунами в Европа.
Пред очите ни се издига отново „желязна завеса“ между Изтока и Запада. Разкъсват се хоризонтални промишлени вериги в света. Глобалната либерална икономика се разпада. Създават се мегарегиони с оформяща се самостоятелна икономика и финансова система.
Основните икономически двигатели на западния свят в лицето на САЩ и Германия забавят обороти. Промишлената инфлация в САЩ е около 25%. Тя рефлектира директно върху цените на потребителските стоки. Предстои масово обедняване на планетарното население. България не прави изключение.
Повечето българи вече усетиха негативната тенденция. Замяната на руския тръбопроводен природен газ с американски втечнен газ ще повлече покачване на всички потребителски стоки у нас. Това ще провокира социално напрежение и протести. Първите крачки на новото правителство във вътрешната и външна политика определено бяха доста непохватни.
Ситуацията у нас ще се влоши, ако тръгнем по пътя на Литва, Латвия и Естония и започнем да търгуваме с русофобия в евроатлантическата общност. Икономическото състояние на Прибалтика е учебно помагало какво следва от усилията в тази посока.
– Путин заговори за несиметрични на санкциите действия, какви биха могли да са те?
– Ние свикнахме, че само САЩ и ЕС могат да налагат санкции. Наивно е да се счита, че Русия не притежава технологии, от които е зависим колективния Запад. Например, технологии за получаване на титан, който се ползва в съвременните самолети.
И американци и европейци ползват руски титан в своето самолетостроене.
Една значителна част от конструкторските бюра на самолетите „Боинг“ са в Русия. Русия има ключови инвестиции в някои чувствителни отрасли, например в компания „Ербъс“ различни държави имат участие, 18% са собственост на Франция, а 5% на руската държава.
Британците затвориха своето въздушно пространство за руски самолети. Руснаците реагираха реципрочно. Полетът Лондон-Токио, заобикаляйки руското въздушно пространство, става 30% по-скъп.
Това е тежък финансов удар върху стойността на самолетните билети и цената на карго полетите. И други държави затвориха или се канят да затворят своето въздушно пространство за руски самолети.
Някой правил ли е сметка каква е стойността на всички западни активи в Русия? Несиметрично действие на Русия е да спре доставките на енергийни суровини за Европа. Но това е крайна мярка и не ми се иска да считам, че може да се стигне до там.
– Как оценявате санкциите срещу Русия приети от европейските лидери в четвъртък вечерта?
– Тези санкции ще ликвидират офшорната руска аристокрация, която е ненавиждана от обикновените руснаци. Да, ще затруднят Русия, но ще засегнат много силно и без това разклатената европейска икономика.
Въобще трябва да сме наясно, че икономическите санкции, които се налагат основно по искане на САЩ, ще оформят една голяма „фактура“, която европейците ще трябва да платят.
Руснаците и американците в някакъв момент ще се договорят, но Европа ще е понесла всички загуби. И то след икономическия удар, който светът получи от пандемията. Имам усещането, че европейските лидери нямат рецептори да усетят, че Европа загива.
Тя е само придатък на американската глобална политика.
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