Руският президент Владимир Путин може официално да обяви война на Украйна на 9 май, заяви неколкократно Си Ен Ен през последната седмица, като се позова на свои източници.
Какво означава официалното обявяване на война на практика?
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Путин може да използва символичното значение на Деня на победата, за да обяви или постижения на „специалната военна операция“ в Украйна, или ескалация на военните действия, или и двете, казват източници на Cи Ен Ен. Най-вероятен според тях ще бъде сценарият за официално обявяване на война на Украйна.
Руската инвазия в Украйна започна на 24 февруари, но руските власти настояват, че там се провежда „специална военна операция“. Думите „война“ и „инвазия“ във връзка с военни операции в Украйна всъщност са забранени.
Според американската телевизия официалното обявяване на война би могло да засили обществената подкрепа за сраженията в Украйна и също така да позволи на руските власти да обявят обща мобилизация, от която Русия сега силно се нуждае.
Говорителят на Кремъл Дмитрий Песков в сряда нарече съобщенията за възможно обявяване на мобилизация в Русия на 9 май „неверни и нелепи“.
На 20 февруари, три дни преди началото на т. нар. военна спецоперация, Песков нарече съобщенията за планирано нахлуване на руски войски в Украйна провокации и разпалване на истерия: „Напомняме, че Русия никога не е нападала никого през цялата си история. Русия, която преживя толкова много войни, е последната държава в Европа, която иска изобщо да говори, дори да произнася думата „война“, каза говорителят на Путин.
Предположението, че на 9 май Путин може да обяви мобилизация, както и да обяви пълномащабна война „срещу световния нацизъм“, беше изразено по-рано и от британския министър на отбраната Бен Уолъс, припомня Би Би Си. Уолъс каза миналата седмица пред радио Ел Би Си, че парадът в Москва – в чест на поражението на нацистите и победата във Втората световна война – може да бъде използван за набиране на подкрепа за масова мобилизация на войски и подновяване на натиска в Украйна.
„Не бих се учудил и нямам никаква информация за това, че той вероятно ще обяви на този ден, че „сега сме във война със световните нацисти и трябва да мобилизираме масово руския народ“, каза министърът.
В същото време според папа Франциск унгарският премиер Виктор Орбан му казал по време на срещата им на 21 април, че руските власти планират да прекратят военните действия на 9 май.
Путин каза в началото на март, че няма предпоставки за въвеждане на военно или друго извънредно положение в Русия, тъй като то се въвежда само в случай на външна агресия.
В коментар в германското списание „Фокус“ също се отправя предупреждение Германия да се подготви за три възможни сценария в зависимост от това какво ще избере да каже Путин на 9 май.
„Изглежда доста правдоподобно на този ден Владимир Путин да обяви не победа във войната срещу Украйна, а мащабна мобилизация.“
Авторът разглежда и възможността – на фона на прегрупирането на руските войски, които бяха изтеглени от около Киев и трябваше да засилят офанзивата в Източна Украйна – Путин да обяви „освобождаването“ на Донецката и Луганската „народни републики“ – като „доказателство“ за успеха на Русия в „специалната военна операция“. „Превземането на Мариупол и Херсон и основаването там на нови псевдодържави също биха били успехи, които биха могли да се празнуват като победи.“
Авторът призовава германското правителство да се подготви и за трите възможни сценария:
Първият, при който на 9 май да не бъдат обявени от Москва повече мащабни решения. Вторият, че в резултат на военната операция ще бъде обявено освобождаването на съществуващите и създаването на нови „народни републики“. Третият, че Русия ескалира войната с мобилизация.
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