В САЩ ще избухне сериозна криза, а в Европа ще се надигнат политически бури. Тази прогноза даде унгарският премиер Виктор Орбан и дори посочи времето. Унгарският премиер далеч не е сам в подобни оценки. Какви кризи очакват човечеството през следващите години – и какво ще означава всичко това за Русия?
Унгарският премиер Виктор Орбан призова страната си да се подготви за 2030 г., за да остане „успешно местно изключение“ по време на глобалната криза, която според него ще засегне Европа и Съединените щати по това време. Говорейки в румънския град Байле Тушнад (Трансилвания), политикът нарече 2030 г. „най-важният хоризонт“.
„Дотогава проблемите на западния свят ще са се натрупали. Ще има много сериозна криза в САЩ. В европейските страни икономическият спад е почти неизбежен, което може да предизвика и политически бури. Точно тогава трябва да сме в страхотна форма: имаме нужда от дипломатическа, икономическа, интелектуална и военна сила“, каза Орбан.
Премиерът призова „да стоите далеч от войната, миграцията, джендърната лудост, глобалния минимален данък и общоевропейската рецесия“. „Успяхме да стоим настрана от това през 2010 и 2020 г., от всяка криза излизахме по-силни, отколкото когато влизахме в нея“, смята политикът.
Стратегията на Орбан за „успешно местно изключване в глобална криза“ включва гранична охрана, семейството като основа на обществото, големи военни индустриални разработки, разнообразяване на енергийни източници, духовни основи и национални амбиции, технологични промени и приток на чужд капитал от Изток и Запад.
„За да запазим нашите национални амбиции в предстоящия труден период, ние трябва да останем заедно, Трансилвания и другите области, населени с унгарци в Карпатския басейн, трябва да останем заедно с родината“, заключи Орбан.
Така унгарският премиер се присъедини към онези, които предричат глобални сътресения през следващите години, които заплашват особено Запада.
Много анализатори в своите прогнози за следващото десетилетие са съгласни, че САЩ и Китай ще останат най-големите играчи на световната сцена. В същото време влиянието на регионалните играчи върху глобалните процеси ще продължи да расте и Евразия окончателно ще заложи ролята на стратегически център на тежестта в света.
Последствията от поредната надпревара във въоръжаването между Русия и САЩ може да се окажат непредвидими. Не е изключена появата на оръжия и бойни системи, които не подлежат на никакви правила или ограничения. Това е един от факторите, които увеличават риска от грешни изчисления, които могат да провокират въоръжен конфликт.
Андрей Кортунов, генерален директор на Руския съвет по международни отношения, подчертава, че в подобни прогнози най-често се чува 2030 г. „Тозихоризонт все още е достатъчно далеч от нас, но все пак това не е фантазия, а нещо, което вече започва да се очертава“, казва експертът.
Вече протичат процеси, които трябва да се проявят до 2030 г. В повечето страни по света до този момент ще се сменят поколения политически лидери, на власт ще дойдат хора, чието съзнание се е формирало през XXI век, които не помнят Студената война и „ще променят много“.
Но именно излизането на Китай на лидерска позиция не само по икономически, но и по технологичен потенциал и много други параметри ще бъде едно от основните събития през следващите години.
„Ще има сериозна промяна на силите в света. Преди пандемията от коронавирус много експерти казаха, че до 2035 г. Китай ще надмине Съединените щати по отношение на размера на икономиката в доларово изражение.
Но след пандемията, през която Съединените щати преминаха не по най-добрия начин и с много проблеми, тези прогнози се коригират към намаляване на периода на китайско догонващо развитие, смяна на лидера може да настъпи до 2030 г. дори по-рано“, каза източникът.
Историкът и публицист Армен Гаспарян е съгласен, че идват времена на сериозни политически вълнения. Събитията от 24 февруари отбелязаха началото на епоха, „за която никой не беше подготвен“.
„Четири правителства вече паднаха в Европа тази година. В САЩ има президент, чието психофизическо състояние е известно само на лекуващите лекари. И тези хора трябва да управляват процеса, икономиката. Затова е напълно възможно преди 2030 г. да настъпят много сериозни промени“, смята Гаспарян.
Еднополюсният свят вече не съществува, подчертава събеседникът, и до 30-та година „вече няма да си спомнят за него“. „Европа и САЩ не се подготвяха за икономическата криза.
Всички бяха доволни от съществуващата конфигурация, която самите те разрушиха. Няма да ме изненадат намаляването на броя на страните-членки на Европейския съюз и сериозен срив в САЩ, където не се появяват млади политици.
Средната възраст на членовете на Демократическата партия е най-малко 70 години, това е чудовищно, те не усещат настоящето и затова възникват проблеми“, сигурен е историкът.
Според Гаспарян Орбан е прав в очакванията си, но сега „ще бъде записан като пропагандистите на Путин“, защото „никой не харесва истината“. Въпреки това Русия ще продължи да укрепва своите позиции и влияние в света.
„Ще се засили ролята на тези формати, в които Русия участва. Вече виждаме това в БРИКС и в желанието на други страни да се присъединят към този формат. И за Запада не само това, което показа Русия, е страшно, но и това, което останалите вече разбраха – изобщо не е необходимо да изпълняваш капризите на американските лидери в собствена вреда.
Ето, в Германия ЛГБТ-знаме беше окачено над Бундестага. Може би за Бруклин това е нормално, но за Берлин изглежда малко предизвикателно. Броят на хората, които сега се наричат евроскептици, само ще нараства“, прогнозира Гаспарян.
Кортунов добавя, че Русия е навлязла в преходния период по-рано от другите страни. „Сега виждаме рязко прекъсване с предишния етап. Това прекъсване засяга геополитиката и международните отношения, окончателното отхвърляне на опитите за интегриране в западната система на световната политика.
Това е и географско преориентиране от западна посока към изток и юг. Това, очевидно, е сериозна промяна в структурата на руската икономика и общество“, смята генералният директор на Руския съвет по международни отношения.
Според експерта Русия е изпреварила останалия свят в движението си към 2030 г., което означава, „че рисковете и възможностите, свързани с този преход, ще се отворят пред Русия по-рано, отколкото пред повечето други страни“.
През 2030 г. планетата ще премине определена граница на изменението на климата. Това също ще бъде знаково събитие за следващото десетилетие. Повечето прогнози се свеждат до факта, че до средата на века няма да е възможно да се спре повишаването на глобалната температура в рамките на 1-1,5 градуса.
„Покачването на температурата ще бъде по-бързо със съответните последствия – топене на полярните ледове и покачване на нивото на световния океан.
Към това могат да се свържат много други тенденции и процеси, които ще набират скорост и ще се проявят към 2030 г. Това са събития в областта на сигурността, преходът на човечеството към нов технологичен ред.
Освен това има редица демографски прогнози. Орбан е прав – това ще е определена линия, отвъд която започва нов живот. Но реалността е, че преходът към този живот няма да бъде мигновен, а постепенен“, обобщи Кортунов.
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